Paul Murray: Basil Zempilas needs to help get the Liberal Party restarted before plotting future path

History shows that messiahs are as scarce as hens’ teeth. Politically speaking, things on the saviour front are not much more fruitful than they are for religions. Many political aspirants touted to have messianic qualities arrive on the scene full of promise only to be revealed as false prophets. Others, even though previously stress-tested in difficult jobs, do not survive the blowtorch of public life. The Australian political landscape is littered with the remains of fallen leaders of whom too much was expected. But who is really to blame for the belief that a leader can make the unpalatable, palatable? For example, what were the WA Liberals really expecting Zac Kirkup would deliver when they installed him just four months out from the disastrous 2021 State election? Hardly a messiah, more a finger in the dyke. Bob Hawke’s rise from election-eve opposition leader to prime minister in just one month is the standout case study. But there will only ever be one Silver Bodgie. The most successful Australian political leaders are those whose careers are forged in the fire of long parliamentary battles. Like John Howard, repudiated by the public many times and eventually becoming one of our best prime ministers. Which brings me to Basil Zempilas. Obligatory disclosure statement follows. (We have more in common than time spent behind the microphones at 6PR, mainly a shared passion for the West Perth Football Club. But that doesn’t buy him a leave pass in politics — and he wouldn’t expect one.) Zempilas is now like the man with the wheelbarrow. The job’s in front of him to first get pre-selected for the prized seat of Churchlands and then to survive to an election and beyond. Labor was sucked in by Zempilas’ teased-out arrival as a candidate in State politics to the point of paranoia as an incident at Premier Roger Cook’s pre-Christmas media drinks suggests. I was first alerted by a text message from a senior journalist about a “set-to” involving Deputy Premier Rita Saffioti and Cook’s chief-of-staff Daniel Pastorelli — previously Mark McGowan’s long-time spinmeister — with 6PR mornings host Gary Adshead. It said the heated blue was over Zempilas appearing on Adshead’s program every Friday in his role as Lord Mayor. It should be noted that Adshead is employed by Nine Media, avowed rival to Zempilas’ employer. “Gloves are coming off,” my informant said. Soon after, another journalist told me the comments from Saffioti were “visceral”. To top it off, another source later said that the argument gained so much attention at the party that Police Minister Paul Papalia intervened, telling his two colleagues: “You know this is just what Basil wants.” Papalia clearly didn’t tell Homelessness Minister John Carey, who was ridiculed on Channel Ten’s The Project this week for a presser at which he breathlessly accused Zempilas of “naked ambition” about 10 times while hyperventilating through his ears. Would it be better if Zempilas’ ambition was fully dressed? Labor got the news it hardly needed last weekend with Zempilas’ candidacy running on page one of this title’s big-selling Saturday edition. In that coverage, Zempilas was wise to deal with longstanding murmurings about the Liberal leadership right upfront and without equivocation. “Mere confirmation of Mr Zempilas’ interest is likely to spark speculation about whether his profile and name recognition offers the Liberals a better shot in 2025 than incumbent leader Libby Mettam,” The West reported. “Asked directly whether he planned to challenge Ms Mettam for the Liberal leadership, Mr Zempilas responds with an empathic ‘no’.” The West then ran these Zempilas quotes: “I’m not a candidate for the leadership. I’m not in contention for the leadership. I am in contention for preselection for the seat of Churchlands. If I’m successful, my only job after that will then be to try and win the seat of Churchlands for the Liberal Party.” Those who propose the strategy of Zempilas assuming the leadership while outside the Parliament cite the example of the former Lord Mayor of Brisbane, Campbell Newman, who successfully entered Queensland State politics that way some 11 months before an election was due. There are certainly parallels, but also warnings in the Newman analogy. Newman, an Army officer before mayoralty, led Queensland’s Liberal National Party to its biggest win at the 2012 election, taking 78 of the 89 seats, a wipeout like none seen before in Australian politics. The problem was that Newman proved to be a hopeless Premier, despite his seven-year term as Lord Mayor. He seemed to have a tin ear and was convinced of his own political abilities which were virtually untested before the government. At the 2015 election, the pendulum swung back dramatically the other way. Newman lost government and his own seat on a massive pro-Labor swing that has seen the ALP in government ever since. While Newman’s unconventional assumption of party leadership got widespread media support, the snake bit him on the way out. The Australian Financial Review’s Tony Stephens explained the role in Newman’s demise of previously-supportive broadcaster Alan Jones, Sydney-based but a Queenslander through-and-through, falling out over coal-mining on Darling Downs pastoral land. “There is not much doubt the conservative radio talk show host contributed significantly to the Liberal National Party election loss via an incendiary two-week intervention in the election on Fairfax-owned local radio 4BC,” Stephens wrote. Those promoting the idea that Zempilas should challenge Mettam before the election should also be careful they do not make him look like Stephen Smith. Many people will remember how the former Federal Labor minister tried to grab the Labor leadership from Mark McGowan while outside the parliament before the 2017 election. McGowan told a Sunday afternoon press conference in March 2016 that WA did not need the same “back-stabbing” ugly politics that led to the demise of Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard. “I’ve worked hard over the last 19 years, I’ve worked hard as leader of the party for the past four years,” McGowan said. “I will not give in to this sort of behaviour. I will not be intimidated out of the job that I want to do for the people of Western Australia. I want to be the Premier of Western Australia.” Within two days the Smith challenge petered out and a year later McGowan got his wish. That result still dominates WA politics. Most people who have closely watched Zempilas as Lord Mayor notice how he has grown into the job, improving his political skills, fronting the State Government when he needs to and avoiding most traps Labor sets for him. Zempilas has a populist touch which is clear from his Friday newspaper column. But market research from his time in FM radio shows his relationship with the public is not all clear sailing. A “strategic perceptual study” available to the radio industry showed in 2021 that Zempilas had an awkward relationship with the audience. While his “market familiarity” was rated at 81, well above the Number 1 Nova breakfast talent, former Big Brother star Nathan Morris on 68, his “dislike” rating was 31, also higher than anyone else on the Perth airwaves. The study’s personality summary stated “As for Triple M’s show: Basil is very polarising.” Zempilas has a long corporate association that will both help and complicate his entry into State politics. He will need to demonstrate to many traditional Liberal supporters — and later to the general public — a level of independence that is fundamental to political credibility. Media alignments can cut two ways: the more Seven West Media is seen as supportive, the harder its competitors will go at him. Last Saturday night, after Zempilas’ announcement in this newspaper, ABC led its 7pm TV bulletin with a twisted version of a casual exchange between a Nine reporter and the prospective Churchlands candidate before a press conference earlier that day. Firstly, who cared? Gaza, Ukraine? No one other than those in the media bubble. Second, the story collapsed under scrutiny. By the time ABC aired its mangled mess, the Nine reporter had already creditably disowned the skewed version of events. So, do we face a year of similar squabbling? As it has been pointed out on these pages previously, property developers who try to influence politics with their wealth in States outside WA run the risk of being investigated by anti-corruption agencies. But, of course, we’re different here. Property magnate Nigel Satterley gave Zempilas some free advice through a national newspaper report two weeks ago. Not surprisingly, Satterley focused on political donations, saying Zempilas would “struggle for funding” while the faction known as the Clan was, in his words, “in full control”. Politics is often about perceptions. Satterley’s are about money, saying Labor had plenty, without noting that was partly because of his generosity. Very liberal. But Zempilas would be better to consider where the Liberals’ election-winning policies and talented colleagues will come from, rather than worrying about donors.