Live export: Cattle ban ‘unlikely’ but crippling restrictions could kill $14.7b trade, RMAC chair warns

Industry leaders have downplayed fears of a live cattle export ban but say crippling “compromises” will be on the table as Federal Labor looks set to win a minority government at the next election. Red Meat Advisory Council independent chair John McKillop made the dire prediction during a talk at the Meat and Livestock Australia Updates forum in Perth last week. Peter Dutton’s Coalition now leads the Government on two-party preferred support for the first time since the 2022 election, according to a Newspoll published in The Australian this week. While the Liberals’ 51 per cent two-party preferred support is not enough to win office at the next election, due to be held before May, Labor’s tumble would force it to negotiate with the Greens and crossbenchers to remain in power. Mr McKillop said while it was “unlikely” Labor would “break its promise” not to shut down Australia’s $14.7 billion a year live cattle export industry, it could be forced into implementing restrictions that would effectively kill the trade. “The most likely outcome after the next election will be a minority government (and) if that minority is between, say, the Greens, the Teals and Labor, we’ll end up with a whole lot of compromises,” Mr McKillop said. “Those compromises may well be along the lines of ‘we’ll support your housing package, but you need to impose further restrictions on the live trade’. “It won’t be a ban, but it will be ‘we need more air space, we need five vets on every vessel… to the point where Australia is no longer able to compete with Brazil, Argentina etc, for those exports.” The Albanese Government in July legislated to ban live sheep exports by sea from mid-2028 but has repeatedly promised cattle will not be next. Mr McKillop — a veteran of the feedlotting, processing and live export industries — said there was “a great risk” the Government would simply “force the profitability out of the industry”. “In which case we’re going to have 800,000 to 900,000 cattle heading south that ordinarily would have gone on a boat, and if you think that doesn’t affect you, you wait until you see what the processors will do,” he told the crowd. Australian Livestock Exporters’ Council chief executive Mark Harvey-Sutton was also doubtful cattle would be next. “I don’t think that’s the correct thing to say, but you’ve got to remember that if you can make a decision or a ban like this based on false premises, and the precedent that it sets, it really has people concerned,” Mr Harvey-Sutton said. He said cattle exporters comprised the largest portion of ALEC’s membership and they had very real fears despite Labor’s assurances. “They have been telling us ‘fight this live sheep ban like hell, because… what surety or confidence do we have that the Government’s not going to pull the rug out from under us?’” he said. Mr Harvey-Sutton said the live trade was “so important” to the relationship between Australia and Indonesia, which is the biggest importer of Australian cattle. “Indonesia (is) one of our greatest friends and trading partners, and live cattle is centre to that relationship,” he said. “So we have to keep reminding the Government that live exports actually has a really important role for the country’s strategic interests.”